The Giuliani Papers

The Post Mortems Begin

The New York Times had their "what happened?" piece all ready to go last night.

Its a fairly standard MSM take on the collapse of "America's Mayor," though it does include a basic, if usually subtextual truth: He is totally unlikable.

In interviews Tuesday, even before he gave a concession speech in which he spoke of his campaign in the past tense, Mr. Giuliani described his strategic mistakes, suggesting that his opponents had built up too much momentum in earlier primaries. But this is a rhetorical sleight of hand; he in fact competed hard in New Hampshire, to remarkably poor effect.

Perhaps a simpler dynamic was at work: The more that Republican voters saw of him, the less they wanted to vote for him.

London's Telegraph reminds us of Rudy's amazing capacity for self-adoration:

On a campaign visit to London last autumn, Rudy Giuliani said he was one of the five best known Americans in the world.

At the time it seemed a typically big-headed and gauche remark, but the prevailing wisdom then was that he would win the Republican nomination and stood a fair chance of becoming president of the United States. The incontrovertible truth now is that Mr Giuliani’s campaign imploded through the negative force of his own personality and a major tactical error.

And New York Magazine instructs us to not get too giddy or complacent in our deliverance from evil.

In his concession speech, Giuliani said he was “proud” he had run “a campaign of ideas.” Really? Can anybody name one? If he’d actually come up with a few, he might have stood a chance. But he didn’t — thus, he’s gone.

Well, not totally gone. At some point today, Giuliani is expected to endorse McCain, and this could actually mean quite a lot. For the Arizona senator, who now stands as the undisputed Republican front-runner, closing the deal on Super-Duper Tuesday depends on his kicking ass on the coasts: in California, New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. And in these places, Rudy not only still has substantial support but organizational infrastructure that he can flip over to McCain. The question is what the payback might be. The obvious possibility is a position in a putative McCain administration — say, attorney general.

We cannot sleep soundly. The monster may seem defeated but we know too well what can happen in the final reel to set us up for a sequel: "The Return of the Beast from New York."

Why Did Rudy Fail?

There is a ton of speculation about why Rudy did what he did.

Time asks:

"I don't want to hate on his strategy, but I don't think you can blow off all those states and expect people to forget about that," says Zeke Romero, a 20-year-old Florida International University student who came to a Giuliani rally on campus Monday night. "Why did he do that?"

Yes, why did he do that? "They'll be asking that question in political science classes for years to come," a Giuliani aide muses with a fatalistic sigh. "You know, there are more votes in one of those senior citizen complexes in Boca than the entire city of Manchester, New Hampshire. But politics doesn't work like that."

And then trys to answer:

Perhaps the strangest thing about Rudy's collapse is the candidate himself. The rap on Rudy was always that he was a successful mayor but a nasty man; what the critics never understood was that his nastiness helped make him a successful mayor. He never cared that much whether The People loved him; he wanted a city that worked, and he pursued that goal with a take-no-prisoners combativeness that sometimes bordered on mania. Now he seems so serene, so resigned, so Zen. He doesn't look like he wants to throttle anyone — he doesn't sound vengeful or bitter or power-starved; he talks about "returning power to you!" Who would have thought Rudy would be the guy reminding voters that he's run a positive campaign, declaring that he's "sick and tired of all the name-calling"?

It's hard to watch this Prozac version of Rudy on the trail without wondering if his heart is really in this race. He was like this when he kinda-sorta-almost ran for Senate against Hillary Clinton in 2000; he actually blew off his get-to-know-you tour among the GOP elites of upstate New York to attend the home opener at Yankee Stadium. He still says that he can win today, that Florida could be a "gate-opener" building momentum for Super Tuesday on February 5, but he seems to sense that the gate is slamming shut. And he doesn't seem to mind that much. He appears to be enjoying himself, which wasn't usually the case in New York. "We've been campaigning in Florida so long, I really feel like I'm one of you," he said last night.

Maybe, in the end, that's why he put all his eggs in the Florida basket: He likes it here. It was 71 degrees and sunny this morning at his meet-and-greet at a Sunny Isles Beach deli. He likes to say he banked on Florida because of electoral realities and limited resources; he thought it was a big state he could win "given my positions, given the pros and cons." But at the Orange County Republican dinner Saturday night, Rudy made a telling quip: "People pay a lot of money to spend the month of Florida in January." When the political science classes ponder the remarkable collapse of the Giuliani '08 campaign, they might come to think of it as a $40 million Florida vacation.

Time dances around the more brutal truth: Giuliani, at root, is a pussy. He can act like a tough guy if he's got the NYPD behind him or some flunkies to do his dirty work but out there on his own with everything on the line -- he's the opera-loving Yankees fan marooned among the Elvis lookalikes and Brooklyn Dodger freaks -- he's scared to death. That's why Rudy's so dangerous, in the same way that GW Bush is dangerous, the frightened little boy out to prove himself no matter what the consequences -- for which he will not be accountable!

"Giuliani May End Race After Loss in Florida:" Duh

The LA Times has the late-breaking news:

Rudy Giuliani appears to be pondering an end to his long pursuit of the Republican presidential nomination.

In a meeting in the back of his chartered plane en route to St. Petersburg, Fla., a short while ago, the onetime, longtime GOP front-runner told a small group of reporters, including The Times' Louise Roug: "The winner of Florida will win the nomination."

What else is the man going to do after coming in third or fourth in Florida? Though, it is true, we can never underestimate Rudy's capacity for grandiose self-delusion.

Giuliani As Pathetic Loser

What a delicious fall.

Giuliani snubbed by Florida governor.

Florida's popular Republican Gov. Charlie Crist endorsed McCain on Saturday. The endorsement clearly caught the Giuliani campaign off guard. In early January invitations went out for Orange County's GOP Lincoln Day Dinner, promising remarks by Giuliani and a "special appearance" by Crist. But on Saturday night only Giuliani showed up.

Giuliani begging for attention aboard the media bus.

...the most noticeable change in the campaign has been his increased attention to the press. A funny thing happened on the way to Orlando's Hard Rock Hotel last night. Giuliani, notoriously distant with his traveling press corps, made a rare appearance—one of a handful throughout the entire primary season—on his campaign media van. "Hi, guys," he said almost sheepishly, grasping hands (but avoiding eye contact) as he made his way through the media reception line. At first no one moved. The journalists, not quite sure what to make of the unexpected appearance, hesitated before grabbing their tape recorders and forming a cramped gaggle. Unlike reporters following Sen. John McCain—who joke that they can't shut the guy up—those trailing Giuliani have had to fight for every sound bite. He's so detached from the press corps that one embedded journalist who has been following the campaign for months says Giuliani still mistakes him for a voter at campaign events, and will reach out to shake the journalist's hand as he exits a venue.

Priceless.

MoDo Twists the Knife

Maureen Dowd in the Times today:

I expected more of Rudy.

Not a better message. It figured that he would snowbird his strategy, taking his New York subtext of blacks-want-to-mug-you-and-I-can-protect-you down to Florida and switching it to Arabs-want-to-kill-you-and-I-can-save-you.

I simply expected that Rudy would rise to greater heights as he fell behind, that he would self-immolate in a dramatic way befitting a man who loves opera and the “Godfather” movies. I longed for the Manhattan diva to reprise Maria Callas doing one of her famous Donizetti mad scenes that he loved so much.

His deep investment in one state and a one-dimensional message do not seem to have paid dividends. He needs to quit talking about 9/11 and dial 911. His numbers have dropped by half in the year he has campaigned here. The more he has wooed, the less he has won. His campaign may have always been doomed, given that he was unacceptable to so many other Republicans. But the final act seems sad — sputtering, stalling and dying like a bad engine on an old car.

NYPD Memo Shows Giuliani Lied About Choosing Site for Command Center

We've known this for years. Now the Times produces a memo by the NYPD with their opinion about siting the city's emergency command center at the world trade center. They didn't like the idea. The center was abandoned and then destroyed on September 11, 2001.

“Seven World Trade Center is a poor choice for the site of a crucial command center for the top leadership of the City of New York,” a panel of police experts, which was aided by the Secret Service, concluded in a confidential Police Department memorandum.

The memorandum, which has not been previously disclosed, cited a number of “significant points of vulnerability.” Those included: the building’s public access, the center’s location on the 23rd floor, a 1,200-gallon diesel fuel supply for its generator, a large garage and delivery bays, the building’s history as a terrorist target, and its placement above and adjacent to a Consolidated Edison substation that provided much of the power for Lower Manhattan.

Giuliani has said the city only chose that site because it was recommended by police, security and intelligence agencies as well as by his director of emergency management Jerome Hauer. The truth about the site selection was included in Wayne Barrett and Dan Collins's book on Rudy and 9/11, "Grand Illusion."

Two years ago, in their book, “Grand Illusion,” Wayne Barrett and Dan Collins described the vehement objections to the choice raised by Police Commissioner Howard Safir and Chief of Department Louis R. Anemone. The memo from the Intelligence Division lays out what appears to have been the foundation for their arguments against the location.

Mr. Safir, who now operates a private security company and has supported Mr. Giuliani’s candidacy, did not a return a call seeking comment.

In response to questions about the site selection, Mr. Giuliani has typically said he relied on his emergency management director, Jerome M. Hauer, to find the best site and suggested he had little role in the process.

Mr. Hauer, however, has publicly disputed Mr. Giuliani’s assertion, saying that although he helped pick the site, he did so only after mayoral aides had told him the command center had to be within walking distance of City Hall. He has said he originally recommended a site in Brooklyn.

A Stake to the Heart: 25 Prosecutors Declare Giuliani a Liar

Rudy deserves it.

Newsday reports that 25 former NY prosecutors have signed a letter that says that Giuliani has lied about his record as US Atty. for the Southern District of New York:

The letter begins:

"Rudolph Giuliani has claimed that he was the best of those who have held the prestigious office of United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York.... We are former prosecutors from the New York area, most of whom served in the United States Attorney’s Office. We are familiar with what goes on in New York law enforcement. We challenge Giuliani’s assessment of himself."

It accuses Rudy of using a variety of questionable tactics, including grand jury leaks, and of exagerrating his accomplishments:

"In the current presidential campaign, Giuliani presents an inflated and sometimes seriously inaccurate picture of his achievements as a federal prosecutor.... Under Giuliani, an unusual number of high profile cases began with skillfully manipulated fanfare, but ended in dismissals, acquittals or reversals."

And: "Giuliani’s performance as United States Attorney simply does not match his claims. In fact, we believe that the pattern of improper leaks to the media, excessive use of publicity, and other inappropriate conduct that he engaged in while serving as United States Attorney, together with the disingenuous way in which he now describes his service, casts doubt, generally, on Giuliani’s credibility and judgment."

Giuliani Losing New York

The latest poll has McCain ten points ahead of Rudy in the New York State Republican primary.

Newsday reports:

The WNBC/Marist Poll in New York shows McCain beating Giuliani 32 to 22 percent, followed by Mitt Romney at 14 percent and Mike Huckabee at 11 percent, with Fred Thompson trailing at 4 percent. Fifteen percent of 401 Republicans polled last week were undecided. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent.

A second poll, by Siena College Research Institute, found the former New York mayor trailing the Arizona senator by 12 points for the New York primary Feb. 5. Siena put Giuliani second, with 24 percent of support among Republicans, behind McCain's 36 percent. Romney had 10 percent, Huckabee 7 percent, and Thompson 6 percent. That poll has a margin of error of 7.4 percent.

Giuliani once held a 33-point lead over McCain in the Siena poll, the institute reported Dec. 10.

Giuliani: The "Slide Into Irrelevance"

In about eight weeks Giuliani has gone from frontrunner to second-tier candidate. He lost Iowa and New Hampshire, finishing nowhere close to first. His campaign is pulling resources from this week's contests in Michigan, South Carolina, and Nevada to focus on the January 29 Florida primary, where polls still show him in the lead (by a shrinking margin). The news late last week that senior staff are working without pay put the Giuliani campaign on the defensive, causing it to release cash-on-hand figures showing it isn't broke. On the campaign trail, Giuliani is asked most often about his campaign strategy of not seriously competing in all the contested primaries and caucuses before Florida, then using the momentum from winning that contest to do well in large states like California and New York that vote on February 5. Giuliani says he isn't worried. Conceding New Hampshire, he said, "Maybe we've lulled our opponents into a false sense of confidence now." "Maybe" is right.

What explains Giuliani's slide into irrelevance?

Matthew Continetti in The National Review is one of the latest conservative pundits wondering what happened to Rudy.

All the chatter about his suffering from the "windshear" of Romney/Hilllary's fall and Obama/Huckabee's rise may be somewhat true but mostly acts as a self-serving scenario casting Giuliani as the tragic victim of the cruel and unpredictable political fates. The actual truth is an inconvenient one for the former Mayor. And it goes to the core of his candidacy. The Giuliani persona presented in this campaign is a fraud, a fiction created to mask the reality of much of his tenure as mayor of New York, to obscure his poor performance before, during and after September 11, to hide the nature of his business dealings and to misrepresent his qualifications for the presidency.

It was only a matter of time before voters would get wise to the Giuliani con game. As many commentators have put it: The more you know Rudy, the less you like him. That realization was made by New Yorkers years before Rudy hid behind the smoke and mirrors of 9/11.

At times, though, I wondered how long it was going to take for America and the MSM to wise up. That day has finally come as Giuliani self-destructs before our eyes, his incompetence, desperation and falseness writ large in his disastrous and stupid primary strategy and in the lies he tells to hide his failure.

It is all coming undone at last. From the lies about the campaign strategy. To the lies about the financial condition of the campaign. To the lies about 9/11 repeated thousands of times. To the unraveling of his craven pandering on abortion. To his embarrassing failure in the eyes of the world. To the collapse of his national lead.

January 29 should be the end of this charade. When Rudy loses Florida even he won't be able convince himself that he is winning his goal.

P.S. My suggestion for casting the Rudy Giuliani story is Christopher Walken.

Giuliani and Obama: A Contest We Hope Not To See

Not that Giuliani would have a chance anyway. But it would bring into the starkest relief Rudy's basic instincts to use the dirtiest of political tricks against an opponent. After all, when he was US Attorney he used his own Federal investigators to dig up supposed evidence of David Dinkins' extra-marital dalliance. In a race with Obama Giuliani would be appalling in the depths to which he would go.